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Category: Data

FAFSA Renewals Down 12%, Nearly 900,000 Students Through March 31

Posted on April 27, 2022June 15, 2022 by Bill DeBaun
FAFSA Renewals Down 12%, Nearly 900,000 Students Through March 31

By Bill DeBaun, NCAN Senior Director of Data and Strategic Initiatives

As of the end of March, FAFSA applications for the 2022-23 cycle were down 8.9% year-over-year. More specifically, FAFSA renewals from currently enrolled college students declined 12.3%, and renewals from Pell Grant-eligible students plummeted by 15.6%.

Year-Over-Year % Change in 2022-23 FAFSA Completions through March 31, by Applicant Type

These figures come from data released to NCAN by Federal Student Aid (FSA), and they portend very bad news in the short term for college student retention, persistence, and completion rates. NCAN’s interactive dashboard displays this new data.

View the FAFSA renewals dashboard.

From Oct. 1, 2021, to mid-January 2022, the number of completed FAFSAs (first-time and renewals combined) faced double-digit declines year-over-year and bottomed out at -23.1% through mid-December. Renewals alone were somehow even more dire, hitting a low of -32.8% at the end of November. Pell Grant-eligible renewals saw their steepest decline at -35.8% in mid-November.

Compared to the pre-pandemic 2019-20 FAFSA cycle, 2022-23 Pell-eligible renewals are down 19.2%, which is an almost inconceivably large number seven months into the cycle.

All three categories (overall applicants, renewals, Pell-eligible renewals) saw their trend reverse after mid-January and have steadily climbed since then. But each group was still substantially in the red at the end of March.

Considering applicant income levels, renewals from students with annual incomes less than or equal to $25,000 have declined 16.5% year-over-year, representing about 420,000 fewer students. Students reporting between $25,000 and $50,000 in income are down 10.1% (about 158,000 fewer students), and students reporting more than $50,000 in income have declined 9.9% (about 269,000 fewer students).

% Change in 2022-23 Cumulative FAFSA Renewals Compared to 2021-22, by Applicant Income Level

No state has a positive year-over-year change in FAFSA renewals. The average decline is 12.5%, while Indiana has the steepest drop at -17.7%.

% Change in Year-Over-Year FAFSA Applications Through March 31, by State and Application Type

NCAN previously analyzed renewal declines during the 2020-21 FAFSA cycle two months into the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic caused considerable disruptions to FAFSA completion (among, more broadly, every other aspect of the education system and our lives), but the declines observed through March 2022 in the 2022-23 cycle dwarf those from two years ago. The headline of NCAN’s May 2020 analysis, “Nearly 250,000 Fewer Low-Income FAFSA Renewals This Cycle Nationally” is somehow an upgrade relative to the 420,000 fewer students we currently observe.

These steep declines in overall and renewal applications in the 2022-23 cycle occurred despite the encouraging performance of the high school class of 2022. FAFSA completions for current high school seniors were up 3.9% year-over-year through April 8, driven by strong year-over-year increases by students in high schools serving more students from low-income backgrounds, Black students, and Hispanic students. Another boost came from newly implemented universal FAFSA policies in Texas and Alabama; both states are up more than 20% year-over-year.

What is Driving the Decline in FAFSA Renewals?

There are many plausible explanations for these steep declines in FAFSA renewals, but it’s hard to pin this performance on any one of them.

Structurally, college-going faces some headwinds right now. The hot economy may be having an impact, with starting wages up and perhaps luring students on the margin away from academic programs and into the workforce. Beyond that, there are many factors making college a less feasible or appealing option right now (e.g.,  virtual classes, vaccination and masking requirements, disruptions from having to isolate  when positive, weekly COVID testing). Even more broadly, students may be questioning the value of a postsecondary degree.

Also worth noting is that high schools are having to triage supports to students, with learning loss and academics, mental wellness, and basic needs often getting more attention and investment than postsecondary transitions. Students from the high school graduating classes of 2020 and 2021 may have missed out on supports and foundations that would have contributed to postsecondary persistence and resilience.

More narrowly, NCAN members have noted that the performance of the FAFSA website has periodically been a hindrance over the course of this cycle. Students have experienced outages and error messages and been bounced from the system before submitting their information. Additionally, we note that FSA sent out renewal email reminders later than it did in previous years. It is impossible to believe either of these is a primary driver of the massive declines we are observing, but it is plausible they contribute in some ways that are secondary to the structural challenges shifting students’ choices.

How Can We Help More Students Stay Enrolled in College?

Students still have lots of time to renew their FAFSAs, but this data is especially concerning for what it may signal: a broad shift in students’ intent to re-enroll. Students who leave college with loan debt and no degree face perilous prospects with regard to future earnings and loan repayment outcomes.

NCAN will continue to monitor and analyze this data. In the meantime, we strongly recommend that the K-12 and higher education sectors use their federal pandemic relief dollars (ESSER and HEERF funds, respectively) to focus on postsecondary transitions, retention, persistence, and completion supports, as appropriate. That includes preparing summer melt interventions, contracting with external partners to provide additional capacity where needed, and engaging students to understand how and why their plans might be changing and what we can be doing to support them and keep them enrolled.

In the meantime, institutions, states, and the education field need to examine their enrollment expectations for the fall. As currently projected, far fewer students than anticipated may arrive on campus during the 2022-23 academic year, and that will have significant impacts on those students, their communities, states, and the nation overall.

View the FAFSA renewals dashboard.

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NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker Returns for 5th Year Hoping for a Trendline Turnaround

Posted on October 18, 2021June 15, 2022 by Bill DeBaun
NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker Returns for 5th Year Hoping for a Trendline Turnaround

By Bill DeBaun, Director of Data and Evaluation, National College Attainment Network

Oct. 1 is a major milestone on every college access professional’s calendar because it’s opening day for the new FAFSA cycle. The good news is NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker is back for the fifth consecutive year to help practitioners, policymakers, and the public track high school FAFSA completions at the national, state, city, district, and school levels. The bad news is for the past two FAFSA cycles there have been fewer completions to track.

The nascent 2022-23 FAFSA cycle, which will represent class of 2022 high school seniors, opens on the heels of two consecutive cycles experiencing FAFSA completion declines. By July 2, the high school class of 2021 completed 4.8% fewer FAFSAs than the class of 2020; this represented about 102,000 fewer FAFSA completions and just 53.3% of the senior class. By June 30 of last year, the class of 2020 had about 81,000 fewer FAFSA completions than the class of 2019, representing a 3.7% decline.

Over the summer, it was a tale of two cycles. The class of 2021 slowly clawed back some momentum and rose to -4.2% year-over-year by the end of September. Meanwhile, the class of 2020 declined from -3.7% to -4.2% by Sept. 11 of last year. Neither case is all that encouraging, but all things being equal we’d rather see an upward trend than not.

This all adds up to a sobering reality: across the classes of 2020 and 2021, more than a quarter-million fewer seniors completed a FAFSA than we would have expected, due to the pandemic.

Unfortunately, declines in FAFSA completion have been inequitably distributed, with public high schools serving more students from low-income backgrounds and more students of color seeing fewer FAFSAs completed than their counterparts.

As previously noted, these figures portend a potentially rough postsecondary enrollment landscape for the current fall semester. The catastrophic enrollment declines reported on by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center came on the heels of both a smaller FAFSA completion decline last year and a larger percentage of seniors completing the FAFSA.

Updates to the FAFSA Tracker

Turning toward the current cycle, there are a few changes and additions to the Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker:

  • Most notably, the 12th-grade enrollment figures used to calculate the percentage of seniors completing at the national and state levels are now based on data from the 10th edition of Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE)’s Knocking on the College Door report. Previously, these enrollment figures were based on projections from the 9th edition of the report, now they are based on actual reported enrollment headcounts from the states. The update applies to all cycles in the Tracker, and the trendlines in the Compare By Cycle dashboard reflect this.
    • Functionally, this means that most states will see a decline of three to four percentage points in their percent of seniors completing compared to what they might expect. Because high school graduation rates are (and have been) increasing, and schools are getting better at retaining students, the number of 12th-grade students is increasing relative to WICHE’s previous projections. This means denominators are growing, and average completion rates consequently decrease when we’re comparing 9th and 10th edition calculations.
    • A comparison of 9th and 10th edition calculations based on the 2021-22 FAFSA cycle shows that moving to 10th edition data creates a decrease in the percentage of students completing a FAFSA in 48 states. The average decline is 3.2 percentage points.
    • Questions, concerns, and consternation about this change can be directed to me at debaunb@ncan.org
  • The FAFSA Tracker is pleased to add a new dashboard that shows FAFSA completions by district and high school. This dashboard is filterable at the state, city, district, and school levels and shows total completions, by date of the cycle, for the current and previous cycle.
  • Although the Tracker previously showed year-over-year percent change by public high schools’ Title I eligibility, this year we’ve switched that metric to display comparisons between low- and higher-income high schools. We use the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s cutoff of +/- 50% of students on free- or reduced-price lunch to categorize high schools. We made this switch because of a low sample size of Title I-eligible high schools in the National Center for Education Statistics data.

NCAN remains grateful for the enthusiasm we receive about the FAFSA Tracker, and we are pleased to be able to continue to provide and update this valuable tool. Updates will generally come every Friday pending the availability of FAFSA completion data from Federal Student Aid.

Our fingers are crossed that the class of 2022 will break the downward trend in FAFSA completion declines, and we will be monitoring this cycle closely to provide updates and insights periodically.

Posted in DataLeave a Comment on NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker Returns for 5th Year Hoping for a Trendline Turnaround

FAFSA Completion Declines Nearly 5%; Nation Loses 270K FAFSAs Since 2019

Posted on July 22, 2021June 15, 2022 by Bill DeBaun
FAFSA Completion Declines Nearly 5%; Nation Loses 270K FAFSAs Since 2019

By Bill DeBaun, Director of Data and Evaluation, National College Attainment Network

Key Takeaways:

  • Students must complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) to access federal grants and loans, as well as many types of state and institutional financial aid.
  • By July 2, the high school class of 2021 completed 4.8% fewer FAFSAs than the class of 2020. In other words, about 102,000 fewer seniors completed a FAFSA this year.
  • An estimated 53.3% of the class of 2021 completed a FAFSA by July 2.
  • Across the classes of 2020 and 2021, more than a quarter-million fewer seniors completed a FAFSA than we would have expected, due to the pandemic.
  • Schools with higher concentrations of students of color and students from low-income backgrounds saw greater declines in FAFSA completion.
  • These figures could indicate more enrollment declines for fall 2021. Last year’s catastrophic enrollment declines came on the heels of a smaller FAFSA completion decline.

We warned that FAFSA completion would be bad because we knew it would be bad, and in the end: it’s bad.

The end of June is an important milestone for understanding a high school graduating class’s progress toward Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion. Through July 2 this year, the closest date we have to June 30, the high school class of 2021 completed 4.8% fewer FAFSAs than the class of 2020; this amounts to about 102,000 fewer FAFSA completions. An estimated 53.3% of the class of 2021 completed a FAFSA by July 2, down 2.5 percentage points from last year.

NCAN tracks FAFSA completion data through the Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker, updated weekly from Oct. 1 to June 30 and monthly over the summer.

In terms of year-over-year completions, the class of 2021 has trailed the class of 2020 all cycle. Things hit rock bottom at the end of November when the decline hit a whopping -16.8%. Since then, the class of 2021 clawed its way to within 5% but only after a very slow trudge to the finish line; the class of 2021 clawed back just 1.3% between April 23 and July 2.

It is possible that the class of 2021 could continue to close the gap over the summer; time will tell.

By June 30 of last year, the class of 2020 had about 81,000 fewer FAFSA completions than the class of 2019. The class of 2021 had about 190,000 fewer FAFSA completions compared to 2019. Across the classes of 2020 and 2021, more than a quarter-million fewer seniors completed a FAFSA than we would have expected absent the pandemic.

These figures portend a potentially rough postsecondary enrollment landscape for the fall 2021 semester. The catastrophic enrollment declines reported on by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center came on the heels of a smaller FAFSA completion decline last year (-3.4%) and a larger percentage of seniors completing the FAFSA (55.8%).

Just like the postsecondary enrollment declines above, decreases in FAFSA completion were inequitably distributed, and students of color and students from low-income backgrounds were more negatively affected.

Among Title I-eligible public high schools, which enroll higher proportions of students from low-income backgrounds, FAFSA completions declined 6.5% compared to 3.7% for non-Title I-eligible public high schools.

For schools with more than 40% Black and Hispanic students, the decline was 8.1% compared to 2.2% in schools with less Black and Hispanic enrollment.

Public high schools in cities (-6.6%) and small towns (-7%) declined the most, followed by schools in rural places (-5.5%) and suburban high schools (-4.2%).

Beyond the national landscape, the Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker also considers state-level performance. Looking at the top five states by percent of the senior class completing offers some familiar faces. Louisiana (73.7%) reclaimed the top spot from Tennessee (71.6%) with Washington, D.C. (66.0%), Illinois (65.7%), and New Jersey (64.3%) rounding out the top five.

Illinois is the only newcomer to that top five this year, and it also very impressively makes an appearance to the top five by year-over-year change because it finished up 5% compared to last year. Puerto Rico (+5.6%), Wyoming (+5%), and South Dakota (+2%) are the only other states or territories with more FAFSA completions this year than last, which paints a dismal picture of performance nationally.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Two things are true at this point. First, it isn’t too late for students to complete a FAFSA for the 2021-22 academic year and to pursue a postsecondary pathway this fall. Second, college-going isn’t like a light switch, and students who have not completed key college-going milestones by now or who don’t over the summer will be less likely to pursue and complete a postsecondary pathway.

States are, and have been, stepping in to spur FAFSA completion. Consider chatbots like Arizona’s Benji and Washington’s Otterbot. Other states like Michigan have included FAFSA completion as priorities in statewide plans.

NCAN members and the school districts they work with and adjacent to have a role to play as well. The Washington Post covered some of the creative approaches employed last year. NCAN also maintains a robust FAFSA Resource Library that is free to the public.

So much is different about this point in time in the United States compared to the same time last year. Vaccines are spurring a return to normalcy. Infection and death rates are both, thankfully, down. Still, consider what I wrote on the NCAN blog a year ago:

“Even in a ‘normal’ year, students of color, first-generation students, and students from low-income backgrounds need moral and technical support to complete key milestones toward a postsecondary pathway; it will take a tremendous and concerted effort from K-12, postsecondary, and community-based stakeholders to assist these students. There is still sizable uncertainty about what the fall will look like on college campuses (or in virtual classrooms) across the country. NCAN members can help students navigate that certainty and stay on the pathway toward postsecondary attainment.”

Given the declines experienced by the class of 2021, all of the above remains painfully, urgently true. We still have a lot of work to do.

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5 Noteworthy FAFSA Trends: New Federal Student Aid Data for 2018-19 and 2019-20 Cycles

Posted on July 19, 2021June 15, 2022 by Bill DeBaun
5 Noteworthy FAFSA Trends: New Federal Student Aid Data for 2018-19 and 2019-20 Cycles

By Raymond AlQaisi, Policy and Advocacy Manager, National College Attainment Network

After five years of declining total filers for the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), the 1% year-over-year increase in filers during the 2017-18 cycle was a bright spot for FAFSA completion. With the release of data on the demographics of FAFSA filers for the two most recent completed FAFSA cycles – 2018-19 and 2019-20 – it is now possible to examine whether the upward trend in FAFSA completion continued. Unfortunately, the two most recent FAFSA cycles demonstrate a return to overall declines in FAFSA filing.

FAFSA completion is a strong indicator of intended and eventual postsecondary enrollment. While the Great Recession prompted many to enroll (or re-enroll) in higher education, it was expected that the uptick in college-going might level out, since the recovery years had a relatively stronger economy and lower unemployment. As predicted, FAFSA filing dropped in all but one of the eight years following the recession.

Notably, positive changes to the FAFSA process contributed to the 2017-18 bump in overall completion. First, the use of prior-prior year tax information on the FAFSA meant that applicants could use already filed taxes from a year earlier. Secondly, the U.S. Department of Education (ED) began offering the FAFSA form three months sooner: on Oct. 1 rather than Jan. 1.

For the 2017-18 cycle, the roughly 1% increase in FAFSA completions represented over 228,000 additional filers.

However, as you can see in the chart below, new data for two recent cycles show a steady but continued decrease in FAFSA filing – both at a rate of -2% over the previous year. Note that these FAFSA cycles have minimal overlap with the COVID-19 pandemic.

We sifted through the large quantities of data that Federal Student Aid released about the 2018-19 and 2019-20 FAFSA cycles. Based on our analysis, here are five key FAFSA trends for the college access and success field, policymakers, and other education leaders.

1. More FAFSA filers are using the IRS Data Retrieval Tool.

The latest data show that a larger percentage of FAFSA filers are using the IRS Data Retrieval Tool (DRT) to transfer financial information to their application. As the chart below shows, roughly half (52%) of FAFSA filers used the DRT in the two most recent cycles. The DRT makes the FAFSA process much simpler and reduces the likelihood that FAFSA filers will be selected for verification, the audit-like process of proving that information included on a FAFSA is accurate.

Unfortunately, data for the 2017-18 cycle was omitted here because during the peak of the FAFSA filing season there was a security breach that prompted the IRS to remove the Data Retrieval Tool option from the FAFSA.

A larger uptake in DRT usage is an encouraging development, as it reduces the time needed to complete the FAFSA and eases the process for students. It also demonstrates the value of the FUTURE Act, passed into law in December 2019. When implemented fully for the 2024-25 academic year, the FUTURE Act will allow all FAFSA filers to use an improved version of IRS data transfer.

2. FAFSA completion is down among filers of all ages.

The chart below shows that, up until the two most recent cycles, the trends in FAFSA filing tracked very closely between filers of different ages. As filing decreased among younger filers, it decreased at a very similar rate for older filers.

FAFSA filing was down for all age groups for the past two cycles, but the “19-24” and “25 and up” age groups experience a more acute decline in the 2018-19 cycle. The “18 or less” age group experienced a second year of small increase in 2018-19, but then a more parallel decline to the older age groups in the 2019-20 cycle.

Note that these age groups are based on the birthdate filers report on the FAFSA and are not directly comparable to NCAN’s #FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker, which reports on high school seniors who complete the FAFSA. Multiple factors are used to filter for high school seniors in data reporting, and the FAFSA does not ask applicants about their high school graduation year.

3. First-generation students make up a smaller share of FAFSA completers.

The new data show that, over time, students who are first in their families to attend college are comprising a lesser share of FAFSA completers. These results by themselves are not sufficient to draw alarming conclusions. This trend may be driven by changes in demographics – i.e., as a greater share of Americans have attained a college degree, fewer postsecondary students will be defined as the first in their families to attend higher education.

Nevertheless, first-generation students represent nearly half of filers (i.e., potential college-goers) and are a significant student population for education stakeholders to consider in efforts to raise college attainment rates.

4. FAFSA filers are listing more higher education institutions on their aid applications.

NCAN members, such as the College Advising Corps, recommend that students list at least four schools on the FAFSA to broaden their postsecondary options. Positively, the recent data show that this approach is becoming more prevalent.

The past few FAFSA cycles show a considerable increase in the percentage of freshmen who are filing their application to four or more institutions – and relatedly an apparent decrease in the percentage filing to one institution. The FAFSA process changes of prior-prior year tax data and a longer period to file the aid form coincide with more students filing their FAFSA to more institutions. These data show success in that students are considering more options for college enrollment.

Once we have data for FAFSA cycles impacted by the pandemic, this trend will be one to follow. If more students are only listing one institution, it could mean they are perhaps overlooking match or fit in their college search or have other considerations, such as attending an institution closer to home.

5. Federal COVID relief funds can be used to support FAFSA completion.

Given these trends, FAFSA completion should be a top priority for education leaders. NCAN recommends that states and school districts use recently distributed federal COVID-19 response funding to support FAFSA completion.

In total, Congress has appropriated more than $190 billion in aid to K-12 education to provide relief, promote recovery, and prevent learning loss. Considering the federal government spends about $80 billion annually on elementary and secondary education, these funds represent a massive investment and commitment to students and schools.

They also represent a tremendous opportunity to provide students with support that can keep them on the pathway to postsecondary education. K-12 districts and schools are permitted to use these funds broadly, and NCAN’s sincere hope is that many local education agencies will invest these funds in college and career readiness activities.

NCAN’s community-based organizations and nonprofit members should make themselves readily available to provide supports wherever possible.

Please see these NCAN resources for more information: Blog: K-12 and CBOs Should Use Federal Funding to Spur Partnerships, Help Students and Webinar: How CBOs Can Leverage ARP Funds to Support Students.

Author’s note: The data analysis and charts herein are based on NCAN’s calculations, using the “FAFSA Data by Demographic Characteristics” Cycle reports – data available via the U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid. (Data accessed in June 2021.)

Posted in DataLeave a Comment on 5 Noteworthy FAFSA Trends: New Federal Student Aid Data for 2018-19 and 2019-20 Cycles

FAFSA Completions Bounce in December, Still Down 12.3%

Posted on January 7, 2021January 7, 2021 by Bill DeBaun
FAFSA Completions Bounce in December, Still Down 12.3%

By Bill DeBaun, Director of Data and Evaluation, NCAN

FAFSA completions for the high school class of 2021 have lagged last year by double-digit percentages since October. But a strong December saw completions gain back 4.5% in an encouraging development for an otherwise disastrous cycle.

On Nov. 27, the 2021-22 FAFSA cycle hit its low point of -16.8% FAFSA completions compared to the 2020-21 cycle on the same date. On Dec. 25, the 2021-22 FAFSA cycle was at -12.3%.

These numbers come from NCAN’s analysis of data from Federal Student Aid presented on the Form Your Future FAFSA Tracker, which is updated weekly throughout the FAFSA cycle.

The Tracker examines FAFSA completion at the national, state, city, district, and school levels. For the U.S. and each state, the Tracker computes both an estimated percentage of the current senior class that has completed a FAFSA and a year-over-year percent change.

As of Dec. 25, NCAN estimates that 29.9% of the class of 2021 completed a FAFSA. The top states by percentage completion were Illinois (45.3%), Washington, D.C. (45.2%), New Jersey (41.7%), Tennessee (41.1%), and Kentucky (36.4%).

The percent change metric is much grimmer. As of Dec. 25, no state has more FAFSAs completed than at the same point last year. Georgia (-1.2%) and Hawaii (-1.3%) have the smallest decreases.

There continues to be a worryingly inequitable aspect of FAFSA completion nationally. Title I-eligible public high schools have FAFSA completion declines of -15.5%, compared to -9.6% for non-Title I-eligible public high schools. High-minority public high schools, defined as having 40% or more Black and Hispanic students, have FAFSA completion declines of -17.8%, compared to -7.6% for low-minority high schools. Public high schools in rural places and small towns continue to have much larger FAFSA completion declines than their urban and suburban counterparts.

With the FAFSA Tracker, users can look at national data, examine state profiles that are sortable by city, district, and school, and compare cycle-over-cycle data nationally and by state.

NCAN continues to monitor FAFSA completion closely and will update the FAFSA Tracker through the rest of the cycle. Those with questions, comments, concerns, or requests for specific data pulls can contact Bill DeBaun, NCAN’s director of data and evaluation, at debaunb@ncan.org.

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#FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker Gets a Makeover, Returns for ’21-22 Cycle

Posted on October 20, 2020November 5, 2020 by Bill DeBaun
#FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker Gets a Makeover, Returns for ’21-22 Cycle

By Bill DeBaun, Director of Data and Evaluation, NCAN

NCAN’s #FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker has become a favored resource for policymakers, practitioners, and the public, and it returns now just in time for the 2021-22 FAFSA cycle.

The Tracker recently underwent a technical and aesthetic facelift that streamlines its features and adds new ones that NCAN hopes will improve usability as visitors track Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completions at the national, state, city, district, and school levels.

Earlier this month, Federal Student Aid released the first two batches of data for the cycle on high school seniors’ FAFSA completions. NCAN anticipates updating the FAFSA Tracker on a weekly basis from now until June 30 and semi-monthly thereafter.

This is the fourth FAFSA cycle the Tracker will cover. The tool got its start during the 2018-19 FAFSA cycle (2017-18 academic year).

Some features will be familiar to longtime users; the landing page still starts off by describing the state of FAFSA completion nationally. It then highlights the top five states by year-over-year percent change and estimated percentage of the senior class completing before offering the full rankings. New feature alert: Rolling over a state in the rankings chart will pop up a comparison of that state’s progress against the nation’s overall.

Clicking on the “View State Data” button at the bottom of the page takes users to a state profile page. Selecting a state with the drop-down menu displays that state’s data by a variety of high school characteristics. Scrolling further down, users can filter by city, district, and school and see rankings of high schools at each level by year-over-year percent change in FAFSA completions.

Especially this last spring, interest in and usage of the FAFSA Tracker swelled as the COVID-19 pandemic severely reduced the number of students completing a FAFSA. Through Sept. 11, there were 4.2% fewer FAFSAs completed than through last year, representing about 100,000 fewer students who may have left federal grant and loan aid on the table. Only Hawaii finished the 2020-21 FAFSA cycle with more completions than the 2019-20 cycle.

NCAN estimates that just 61.2% of the class of 2020 completed a FAFSA, which is less than the 62% that completed through late August 2019 in the previous cycle.

Although the Tracker now displays data from the first several days of the 2021-22 cycle, we shouldn’t expect to learn too much from this initial batch of information. It will be tempting to project all kinds of hypotheses about how the COVID-19 will affect FAFSA completion, but resist that temptation.

One data point does not a trend make, and the picture will be clearer on Nov. 1 than it is today.

As users explore the revamped FAFSA Tracker, they should be sure to report any bugs or glitches to Bill DeBaun, NCAN’s director of data and evaluation, at debaunb@ncan.org. Did the makeover leave features you used often on the cutting room floor? Send that feedback, too!

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